Curzon over at Coming Anarchy takes a look at youth bulges in the world and the theory that high populations of young people cause world problems like genocide, uprisings, revolutions, etc. Youth Bulge Theory is heavily influential in US Foreign Policy. So what can the world expect over the next 15-20 years?
The emergence of new economic tigers by 2025 could occur where youth bulges mature into “worker bulges.” Experts argue that this demographic bonus is most advantageous when the country provides an educated work force and a businessfriendly environment for investment. Potential beneficiaries: Turkey, Lebanon, Iran, Morocco, Algeria, Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Meanwhile, current youth bulge states of Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Yemen will remain on rapid-growth trajectories. Tentative conclusions? These countries will remain chaotic, poorly governed, with poor economies not based on steady or stable production.
The wild card in these populations forecasts is HIV/AIDS. Neither an effective HIV vaccine nor a selfadministered microbicide, even if developed and tested before 2025, will likely be widely disseminated. It will remain a pandemic through 2025, with its epicenter in Sub-Saharan Africa. Life-extending antiretroviral therapies may be available, but AIDS remains a factor that could suppress the population of countries that otherwise look to have young and expanding populations.
It’s an interesting and fantastic read all-around about forecasting potential world problems based upon populations and their age demographics.